Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

Fitzgerald, F.; Wing, K.; Naveed, A.; Gbessay, M.; Ross, J.C.G.; Checchi, F.; Youkee, D.; Jalloh, M.B.; Baion, D.E.; Mustapha, A.; Jah, H.; Lako, S.; Oza, S.; Boufkhed, S.; Feury, R.; Bielicki, J.; Williamson, E.; Gibb, D.M.; Klein, N.; Sahr, F.; Yeung, S.
Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone
Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2018; 24(2):311-319

We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.